Axiom’s Edge Network Ratings Tracker

By John J. Joex

Most shows are currently only a handful of episodes away from wrapping up their seasons, so the numbers we have seen up this point will pretty much dictate their fate.  Even if a few trend upward during their final episodes, don’t expect the networks to change their minds at this point on their upcoming schedules.  That said, I have raised the Cancellation Alert on most of the under-performing shows because I believe the clock is ticking for them.

Kings already got the bad news that it was getting exiled to Saturdays to complete its run.  At least it will get the chance to air out its episodes, but don’t expect anything beyond the initial thirteen.  NBC’s Monday night lineup also continues to disappoint.  I know that the network has previously said that Heroes will return, but its numbers continued to slide.  I have raised the alert back up one notch on it along with its two companions Chuck and Medium which both continue to struggle as well.

Reaper has done nothing to build on its numbers either, and its two main show-runners will abandon ship after this season and Tyler Labine could jump ship as well, moving to FOX for his own series.  Its fate definitely looks grim at this point.  And just when Smallville and Supernatural were picking up some wind in their sales, the CW throws repeats at us again.  No wonder that network is struggling because none of its shows can keep up any momentum.

Cupid had a slight chance for survival after its premiere delivered at least passable numbers.  However, it took a dive in its second outing, losing almost 22% of its rating in the 18-49 demographic from its debut.  It never seemed like ABC had confidence in this one anyway, so now you can pretty much count it gone.

Lost took a beating, dropping below its low point from two weeks ago with only a 3.7 in the 18-48 demographic and 8.29 million viewers.  It has really been taking a drubbing since FOX put American Idol in a head-to-head match with it despite the fact that Season 5 has really been hitting its stride.  It still has no real threat or cancellation, though.

FOX’s Friday night lineup looks doomed at this point.  The finale for The Sarah Connor Chronicles brought in only a few more total viewers than the show had the previous week.  And Dolhouse has done nothing to reverse its sinking numbers despite the fact that the writing for the show has continued to improve each week.  I can’t see any scenarios in which FOX decides to bring back either of these two for another season.

One bit of good news this week:  Fringe returned with strong numbers after a two month absence.  I thought its disappearance from the schedule might have hurt its numbers, but it stayed on course.  It got a boost from American Idol bleeding into its timeslot, so the numbers are a bit misleading (what I have posted are from Mediaweek, TV by the Numbers has it at a 3.8 in the 18-49 demographic).  Ignore Yahoo TV’s claim that this show might be in trouble.  It should be a no-brainer for renewal.

Ratings Results:

The Timeslot Rank , and % Change from Prior Week and Lead-In columns are based on the rating in the 18-49 demographic.  The Cancellation Alert column is based on season to date performance and my assessment of how likely the network is to cancel the show.  TVbytheNumbers.com also provides their Renew/Cancel Index which tracks the likelihood of cancellation on a weekly basis.

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